Southern Africa After Mugabe: New Political Dynamics in Zimbabwe, Zambia, and South Africa

The dawn of the 21st century’s third decade finds Southern Africa at a profound inflection point. The region, long defined by its liberation legacies and the towering figures who led its nations to freedom, is undergoing a complex and often turbulent political transition. The departure of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, the rise and challenges of Hakainde Hichilema in Zambia, and the persistent dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) amidst crippling crises in South Africa collectively signal a shift from post-liberation politics to a new, uncertain era. This new chapter is characterized by economic distress, burgeoning youth populations demanding accountability, and a re-evaluation of old alliances. For educated African and diaspora audiences, understanding these interconnected dynamics is crucial to grasping the future trajectory of not just the Southern African Development Community (SADC), but the continent’s economic and political heart.

This article examines the distinct yet intertwined political journeys of Zimbabwe, Zambia, and South Africa—three anchors of the region. It explores how each nation is grappling with its past while navigating a present fraught with challenges, offering a nuanced perspective on the future of Southern African governance.

The Zimbabwean Experiment: From Mnangagwa’s New Dawn to Persistent Crisis

The November 2017 military-assisted transition that ended Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule was met with euphoria and immense optimism. His former deputy, Emmerson Mnangagwa, promised a radical break from the past: a new dawn characterized by democratic openness, economic liberalization, and international re-engagement. The mantra was Zimbabwe is open for business.

The Gap Between Promise and Reality

Nearly seven years later, the gap between this promise and the lived reality of most Zimbabweans is stark. The economic situation remains dire, marked by:

• Currency Instability: The reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar (ZWL) has failed, with widespread dollarization persisting due to hyperinflation and a severe lack of confidence.
• Unemployment and Informalization: Formal unemployment is estimated to be among the highest globally, forcing the majority of the population into the informal sector for survival.
• Ongoing Sanctions: While the Mnangagwa government blames Western sanctions (specifically the U.S. Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act – ZDERA) for its woes, critics argue that endemic corruption, policy inconsistency, and repression are the primary barriers to growth.

Politically, the initial hopes for a more tolerant environment have faded. The opposition, particularly the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), faces what observers describe as a clampdown, with allegations of arbitrary arrests, intimidation, and legal harassment of its members. The 2023 general elections, which gave Mnangagwa a second term, were disputed by observers from SADC itself—a rare and significant critique. The SADC Electoral Observation Mission (SEOM) noted issues of bias in the judiciary and electoral commission, and the suppression of opposition rallies.

Dr. Ibbo Mandaza, a prominent political analyst, notes: The ‘new dispensation’ has proven to be a continuation of the old by other means. The structures of the securocratic state remain intact, and the promise of political reform has been sacrificed at the altar of regime survival.

The Mnangagwa era thus represents a paradox: a government that speaks the language of reform and modernity but whose power base and actions remain entrenched in the authoritarian practices of the past.

Zambia’s Democratic Test: The Hichilema Administration and the Debt Dilemma

In August 2021, Zambia provided a beacon of hope for democratic renewal in the region. Hakainde Hichilema, a former businessman and opposition leader who had been imprisoned under the previous administration, achieved a stunning electoral victory over incumbent Edgar Lungu. His party, the United Party for National Development (UPND), won on a platform of economic revitalization, anti-corruption, and restoring democratic norms.

The Challenges of Governance

President Hichilema, popularly known as HH, inherited a nation on the brink. His administration’s immediate challenges included:

• A Debt Crisis: Zambia became the first African nation to default on its sovereign debt during the COVID-19 pandemic, with external debts exceeding $13 billion.
• Restoring Institutional Integrity: Reforming key institutions like the police and judiciary, which were perceived as highly politicized under Lungu.
• Unfulfilled Expectations: Managing the incredibly high expectations of a population desperate for rapid economic improvement.

Hichilema’s government has been praised internationally for its pragmatic approach, particularly its swift engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and successful negotiation of a $1.3 billion extended credit facility. A significant breakthrough was reached in 2024 with official creditors under the G20 Common Framework, restructuring $6.3 billion in debt and paving the way for further relief from private creditors.

However, the path is not smooth. Austerity measures, while necessary for fiscal discipline, are painful for citizens. Furthermore, the government faces the immense task of dismantling deeply entrenched patronage networks. The Zambian case is a critical test of whether democratic change can deliver tangible economic results quickly enough to sustain public support.

South Africa’s Crossroads: ANC Dominance Amidst State Capture and Economic Stagnation

South Africa, the region’s economic powerhouse, presents a different dynamic: not a recent political transition, but the slow unraveling of a liberation movement’s hegemony. The African National Congress (ANC), which has governed since 1994, is facing an existential crisis fueled by its own internal failures.

The Tripartite Crisis

The nation grapples with a interconnected trio of crises:

1. Economic Stagnation: Persistently high unemployment (officially over 32%), crippling power cuts (loadshedding) due to the collapse of state-owned Eskom, and stagnant growth have devastated the economy.
2. The Legacy of State Capture: The findings of the Zondo Commission laid bare a systematic project of corruption during Jacob Zuma’s presidency, hollowing out state institutions and eroding public trust.
3. Political Fragmentation: For the first time, the ANC’s vote share dipped below 50% in the 2024 national elections, forcing it into a Government of National Unity (GNU). This marks a fundamental shift from dominant-party rule to a new, uncertain era of coalition politics.

The new administration under President Cyril Ramaphosa is now tasked with an almost Herculean effort: implementing crucial reforms while managing a fragile and contentious coalition with rivals like the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the populist uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party. The future of South Africa’s democracy hinges on whether this unwieldy coalition can prioritize national interest over partisan politics.

Interconnected Fates: Regional Integration and Security in a Shifting Landscape

The destinies of Zimbabwe, Zambia, and South Africa are inextricably linked through trade, migration, and shared security challenges. The performance of South Africa’s economy directly impacts its neighbors, as it is the primary destination for exports and a source of investment. Similarly, political instability in Zimbabwe has for decades driven migration into South Africa and Zambia, a sensitive issue that often fuels xenophobic sentiment.

SADC’s Role in a Changing Region

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) remains the primary vehicle for regional integration. However, its principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states often limits its effectiveness in resolving political crises, as seen in its cautious response to the elections in Zimbabwe and Eswatini’s political unrest.

The region faces common transnational threats, from climate change-induced droughts to cybercrime and violent extremism in parts of Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Addressing these requires unprecedented cooperation and resource pooling, a difficult task when key nations are preoccupied with internal crises.

Table: Key Economic Indicators Comparison (2023 Estimates)

Indicator	South Africa	Zambia	Zimbabwe	SADC Average
GDP Growth (%)	0.6%	4.7%	5.3%	2.8%
Inflation (%)	5.9%	13.1%	26.5%	12.7%
Public Debt (% of GDP)	72.0%	62.5%	100.0%+	65.9%

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, African Development Bank, National Statistics

The Future of Southern African Politics: Key Trends and Projections

The political landscape of Southern Africa is being reshaped by several powerful, cross-cutting trends that will define the coming decade:

1. The Youth Demographic Bulge: A disproportionately young population is increasingly frustrated with stagnant economies and political systems dominated by older liberation-era elites. Their energy is a potent force for change, as seen in youth-led protest movements and their growing influence at the ballot box.
2. The Economics of Accountability: There is a growing, undeniable link between economic performance and political survival. The Zambian election proved that economic mismanagement can topple a incumbent. The ANC’s electoral decline is directly tied to its failure to deliver services and growth. Governments can no longer rely solely on liberation credentials for legitimacy.
3. Coalition Politics: The era of single-party dominance is waning. The rise of viable opposition parties, as seen in South Africa and Zambia, points to a future where negotiation, compromise, and coalition-building will become the norm, potentially leading to both greater accountability and political instability.
4. External Influence: The role of external powers is evolving. While traditional Western partners remain important, the influence of China (as a major creditor and infrastructure builder) and Russia (through diplomatic and military partnerships) is creating new geopolitical choices and complexities for Southern African nations.

A Region in Transition

The post-Mugabe era in Southern Africa is not defined by a single outcome but by an ongoing, contested process of change. Zimbabwe struggles with the weight of its unresolved past, Zambia embodies the fragile hope of democratic renewal, and South Africa represents the complex challenge of renewing a liberation movement from within.

The key takeaway is that the political culture of the region is evolving from one rooted in historical legitimacy to one that will be increasingly forced to respond to demands for performance-based legitimacy. Citizens are demanding competent governance, economic opportunity, and accountable leadership. While the path forward is fraught with difficulty, the very act of demanding more from leaders—as evidenced across these three nations—is a sign of a political awakening that will ultimately shape a more resilient and responsive Southern Africa.