Export Surge Lifts Uganda’s Economy to 8.5% Growth

Uganda’s economy expanded by 8.5 percent in the second quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, driven largely by a sharp rise in exports and increased investment, according to the latest Performance of the Economy Report released in March 2026.

Preliminary estimates from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics show that export earnings surged by 72.1 percent, rising from $844.6 million (about Shs3.3 trillion) in January 2025 to $1.45 billion (about Shs5.6 trillion) in January 2026.

The strong export performance – supported by gold, coffee, electricity, industrial products and oil re-exports – pushed Uganda’s trade balance into a surplus of $147.26 million (about Shs568 billion) in January 2026.

This represents a sharp turnaround from a deficit of $206.43 million (about Shs797 billion) recorded in December 2025 and a deficit of $215.28 million (about Shs832 billion) in January 2025.

The report also indicates that economic activity remained strong in February 2026, with improvements in business conditions and employment levels.

High-frequency indicators such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Business Tendency Index (BTI) remained above the 50 mark, signaling continued expansion and positive business sentiment.

At the same time, inflation eased to 2.9 percent in February 2026, down from 3.2 percent in January, mainly due to slower increases in service costs, particularly international air transport and healthcare services.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Uganda maintained the Central Bank Rate at 9.75 percent for the seventeenth consecutive month, a stance aimed at supporting economic growth while keeping inflation close to the medium-term target of 5 percent.

The Performance of the Economy Report for February 2026 was released by the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (Uganda), drawing on data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics and the Bank of Uganda.

The report highlights a strengthening economic outlook, supported by rising exports, stable prices, and improving business activity.